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Newmont Stock Loses 9% in a Month: Should You Buy the Dip?
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Key Takeaways
Newmont shares are down 8.7% in a month, underperforming the industry and the S&P 500.
NEM is expanding production with projects like Cadia Panel Caves and Tanami Expansion 2.
Higher costs and lower 2026 production may weigh on Newmont's profitability.
Newmont Corporation's (NEM - Free Report) shares have lost 8.7% in the past month, partly reflecting the recent retreat in gold prices on inflation worries stemming from heightened tensions in the Middle East.
NEM stock has underperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 7.8% fall and the S&P 500’s 0.7% decline. Among its gold mining peers, Barrick Mining Corporation (B - Free Report) , Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM - Free Report) and Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC - Free Report) have lost 1%, 9.2% and 10.3%, respectively.
NEM’s One-month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The NEM stock slipped below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on June 5, 2026. It is also currently trading below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA is reading higher than the 200-day SMA, following a golden crossover on April 16, 2025, indicating a bullish trend.
NEM Stock Trades Below 50-Day SMA
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Given the pullback in Newmont’s shares, investors might be tempted to snap up the stock. But is this the right time to buy NEM? Let’s find out.
Key Projects & Asset Streamlining to Aid NEM’s Growth
Newmont continues to invest in growth projects in a calculated manner. The company is pursuing several projects, including the Cadia Panel Caves and Tanami Expansion 2 in Australia. These projects should expand Newmont’s production capacity and extend mine life, driving revenues and profits.
In October 2025, NEM achieved a significant milestone at Ahafo North. It achieved commercial production at the project, which followed the first gold pour in September 2025. Ahafo North is expected to produce between 275,000 and 325,000 ounces of gold annually over an estimated mine life of 13 years. Output is expected to be 315,000 ounces this year, with a ramp-up to full capacity.
Newmont has also divested non-core businesses as it shifts its strategic focus to Tier 1 assets. The company generated $3.6 billion from its portfolio optimization actions in 2025. These funds will support Newmont’s capital allocation strategy, which focuses on reinforcing its balance sheet and delivering returns to its shareholders.
Robust Financial Health Supports NEM’s Capital Allocation
Newmont has a strong liquidity position and generates substantial cash flows, which allow it to fund its growth projects, meet short-term debt obligations and drive shareholder value. At the end of the first quarter of 2026, Newmont had robust liquidity of roughly $12.8 billion, including cash and cash equivalents of around $8.8 billion. Its free cash flow surged 161% year over year to a record $3.1 billion in the first quarter, led by an increase in net cash from operating activities. Net cash from operating activities amounted to $3.8 billion in the first quarter, up from $2 billion in the year-ago quarter.
NEM has distributed $3.4 billion to its shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in 2025. It has returned $2.7 billion to its shareholders since Feb. 19, 2026. Newmont has executed repurchases of $6 billion under the earlier authorized share purchase programs, including $2.4 billion since the fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call. Its board has approved an additional $6 billion repurchase program. NEM offers a dividend yield of 1% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 12%.
Newmont also remains committed to deleveraging, reducing debt by roughly $3.4 billion in 2025. It reduced debt by an additional $42 million in the first quarter, resulting in a strong net cash position of $3.2 billion.
Favorable Gold Prices Bode Well for NEM Stock
Newmont stands to benefit from elevated gold prices, which should drive its profitability and cash flow generation. While gold prices have retreated sharply from their January 2026 peak, they continue to remain at supportive levels.
Heightened geopolitical tensions, a weaker U.S. dollar, tariff-related concerns and concerns surrounding the Federal Reserve’s independence had driven bullion to a record high of nearly $5,600 per ounce in late January. Since then, gold has pulled back sharply due to inflation concerns triggered by a surge in crude oil prices amid persistent Middle East tensions, with prices falling to $4,500 per ounce around the end of May.
Bullion continued to retreat this month amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, inflation worries and prospects of an interest rate hike, with prices slipping below $4,100 per ounce last week. Prices hit a seven-month low as fresh U.S. strikes on Iran fueled a rally in oil prices, stoking inflation concerns. Gold has recovered to above $4,300 per ounce lately, following the announcement of a U.S.-Iran peace deal, leading to a decline in oil prices.
NEM saw lower gold production for the first quarter of 2026, partly linked to its strategic divestment of non-core assets. NEM reported a roughly 16% year-over-year and 10% sequential decline in attributable gold production to 1.3 million ounces. Newmont expects second-quarter 2026 production to be below the first-quarter level.
The company anticipates gold production at about 5.26 million ounces for 2026, indicating a year-over-year decline from 5.89 million ounces in 2025. NEM expects lower production from Penasquito and Cadia in 2026 due to the site transitions. It also sees lower-than-expected production from Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo. These will be partly offset by contributions from the newly commissioned Ahafo North mine.
Lower production is expected to lead to higher unit costs in 2026. NEM expects all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) — a critical cost metric for miners — to be $1,680 per ounce on a by-product basis, a notable increase from $1,358 per ounce in 2025. The expected increase is due to lower sales volumes as a result of planned mine sequencing, higher royalties and production taxes, deferral of sustaining capital from 2025 into 2026 and inventory changes. Newmont also sees a significant sequential increase in unit costs in the second quarter, partly due to increased sustaining capital spending, higher costs associated with sales at Boddington, Tanami, Lihir and Penasquito and increased oil prices. The production decline and higher costs could undercut the profitability goals.
NEM’s Earnings Estimates Northbound
Newmont’s earnings estimates for 2026 have been going up over the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2026 has also been revised higher over the same time frame.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings is currently pegged at $9.91, suggesting year-over-year growth of 43.8%. Earnings are expected to grow roughly 57.3% in the second quarter.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
A Look at Newmont Stock’s Valuation
Newmont is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 9.73X, roughly in line with the industry’s average of 9.7X. NEM is trading at a discount to Barrick and Agnico Eagle and at a premium to Kinross Gold. Newmont and Barrick currently have a Value Score of B each. Kinross Gold and Agnico Eagle have a Value Score of A and C, respectively.
NEM’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, B, AEM and KGC
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Final Thoughts: Hold Onto NEM Shares
Newmont remains well-positioned for growth, supported by the solid performance of its operations and a strong pipeline of projects that are expected to increase production capacity, extend mine life and support higher revenues and earnings. The company’s asset optimization, which focuses on directing capital toward high-return, long-life operations, further strengthens its long-term outlook.
Other positives include rising earnings estimates and a healthy growth trajectory. Favorable bullion prices should also boost NEM’s profitability and drive cash flow generation. However, lower production stemming from divestitures and lower ore grades, along with elevated costs, could pressure overall performance. Retaining this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock will be prudent for investors who already own it.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Newmont Stock Loses 9% in a Month: Should You Buy the Dip?
Key Takeaways
Newmont Corporation's (NEM - Free Report) shares have lost 8.7% in the past month, partly reflecting the recent retreat in gold prices on inflation worries stemming from heightened tensions in the Middle East.
NEM stock has underperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 7.8% fall and the S&P 500’s 0.7% decline. Among its gold mining peers, Barrick Mining Corporation (B - Free Report) , Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM - Free Report) and Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC - Free Report) have lost 1%, 9.2% and 10.3%, respectively.
NEM’s One-month Price Performance
The NEM stock slipped below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on June 5, 2026. It is also currently trading below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA is reading higher than the 200-day SMA, following a golden crossover on April 16, 2025, indicating a bullish trend.
NEM Stock Trades Below 50-Day SMA
Given the pullback in Newmont’s shares, investors might be tempted to snap up the stock. But is this the right time to buy NEM? Let’s find out.
Key Projects & Asset Streamlining to Aid NEM’s Growth
Newmont continues to invest in growth projects in a calculated manner. The company is pursuing several projects, including the Cadia Panel Caves and Tanami Expansion 2 in Australia. These projects should expand Newmont’s production capacity and extend mine life, driving revenues and profits.
In October 2025, NEM achieved a significant milestone at Ahafo North. It achieved commercial production at the project, which followed the first gold pour in September 2025. Ahafo North is expected to produce between 275,000 and 325,000 ounces of gold annually over an estimated mine life of 13 years. Output is expected to be 315,000 ounces this year, with a ramp-up to full capacity.
Newmont has also divested non-core businesses as it shifts its strategic focus to Tier 1 assets. The company generated $3.6 billion from its portfolio optimization actions in 2025. These funds will support Newmont’s capital allocation strategy, which focuses on reinforcing its balance sheet and delivering returns to its shareholders.
Robust Financial Health Supports NEM’s Capital Allocation
Newmont has a strong liquidity position and generates substantial cash flows, which allow it to fund its growth projects, meet short-term debt obligations and drive shareholder value. At the end of the first quarter of 2026, Newmont had robust liquidity of roughly $12.8 billion, including cash and cash equivalents of around $8.8 billion. Its free cash flow surged 161% year over year to a record $3.1 billion in the first quarter, led by an increase in net cash from operating activities. Net cash from operating activities amounted to $3.8 billion in the first quarter, up from $2 billion in the year-ago quarter.
NEM has distributed $3.4 billion to its shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in 2025. It has returned $2.7 billion to its shareholders since Feb. 19, 2026. Newmont has executed repurchases of $6 billion under the earlier authorized share purchase programs, including $2.4 billion since the fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call. Its board has approved an additional $6 billion repurchase program. NEM offers a dividend yield of 1% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 12%.
Newmont also remains committed to deleveraging, reducing debt by roughly $3.4 billion in 2025. It reduced debt by an additional $42 million in the first quarter, resulting in a strong net cash position of $3.2 billion.
Favorable Gold Prices Bode Well for NEM Stock
Newmont stands to benefit from elevated gold prices, which should drive its profitability and cash flow generation. While gold prices have retreated sharply from their January 2026 peak, they continue to remain at supportive levels.
Heightened geopolitical tensions, a weaker U.S. dollar, tariff-related concerns and concerns surrounding the Federal Reserve’s independence had driven bullion to a record high of nearly $5,600 per ounce in late January. Since then, gold has pulled back sharply due to inflation concerns triggered by a surge in crude oil prices amid persistent Middle East tensions, with prices falling to $4,500 per ounce around the end of May.
Bullion continued to retreat this month amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, inflation worries and prospects of an interest rate hike, with prices slipping below $4,100 per ounce last week. Prices hit a seven-month low as fresh U.S. strikes on Iran fueled a rally in oil prices, stoking inflation concerns. Gold has recovered to above $4,300 per ounce lately, following the announcement of a U.S.-Iran peace deal, leading to a decline in oil prices.
Weaker Production, Higher Costs Cloud NEM’s Prospects
NEM saw lower gold production for the first quarter of 2026, partly linked to its strategic divestment of non-core assets. NEM reported a roughly 16% year-over-year and 10% sequential decline in attributable gold production to 1.3 million ounces. Newmont expects second-quarter 2026 production to be below the first-quarter level.
The company anticipates gold production at about 5.26 million ounces for 2026, indicating a year-over-year decline from 5.89 million ounces in 2025. NEM expects lower production from Penasquito and Cadia in 2026 due to the site transitions. It also sees lower-than-expected production from Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo. These will be partly offset by contributions from the newly commissioned Ahafo North mine.
Lower production is expected to lead to higher unit costs in 2026. NEM expects all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) — a critical cost metric for miners — to be $1,680 per ounce on a by-product basis, a notable increase from $1,358 per ounce in 2025. The expected increase is due to lower sales volumes as a result of planned mine sequencing, higher royalties and production taxes, deferral of sustaining capital from 2025 into 2026 and inventory changes. Newmont also sees a significant sequential increase in unit costs in the second quarter, partly due to increased sustaining capital spending, higher costs associated with sales at Boddington, Tanami, Lihir and Penasquito and increased oil prices. The production decline and higher costs could undercut the profitability goals.
NEM’s Earnings Estimates Northbound
Newmont’s earnings estimates for 2026 have been going up over the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2026 has also been revised higher over the same time frame.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings is currently pegged at $9.91, suggesting year-over-year growth of 43.8%. Earnings are expected to grow roughly 57.3% in the second quarter.
A Look at Newmont Stock’s Valuation
Newmont is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 9.73X, roughly in line with the industry’s average of 9.7X. NEM is trading at a discount to Barrick and Agnico Eagle and at a premium to Kinross Gold. Newmont and Barrick currently have a Value Score of B each. Kinross Gold and Agnico Eagle have a Value Score of A and C, respectively.
NEM’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, B, AEM and KGC
Final Thoughts: Hold Onto NEM Shares
Newmont remains well-positioned for growth, supported by the solid performance of its operations and a strong pipeline of projects that are expected to increase production capacity, extend mine life and support higher revenues and earnings. The company’s asset optimization, which focuses on directing capital toward high-return, long-life operations, further strengthens its long-term outlook.
Other positives include rising earnings estimates and a healthy growth trajectory. Favorable bullion prices should also boost NEM’s profitability and drive cash flow generation. However, lower production stemming from divestitures and lower ore grades, along with elevated costs, could pressure overall performance. Retaining this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock will be prudent for investors who already own it.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.